Financing Through Uncertainty: MSME Credit in Nigeria’s Evolving Macroeconomic Environment
Financing Through Uncertainty: MSME Credit in Nigeria’s Evolving Macroeconomic Environment
Nigeria has approximately 40 million MSMEs, which account for 96.9% of businesses and 87.9% of employment, which continue to operate within a financing landscape shaped by an estimated US$236 billion credit gap, with only 4% accessing formal bank credit.[1] The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) maintained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.5% in May 2026, contributing to commercial lending rates ranging from 27% to 46% across lending products.[2,3] Meanwhile, headline inflation edged up to 15.93% in May 2026, while the naira remained relatively stable within the ₦1,350–₦1,430/US$ range.[4,5] Against this backdrop, digital lending and alternative financing models are expanding access to credit, while the CBN’s proposed recapitalisation of development finance institutions seeks to address the estimated ₦130 trillion MSME funding gap. Together, these developments suggest that while macroeconomic conditions are gradually stabilising, sustainable improvements in MSME finance will depend not only on policy support but also on financing structures that better align with enterprise cash flows and evolving lender risk preferences.